“Ask a profitable investor to explain the reasons for his success he will offer some deep and convincing interpretation of the results. “Does the book industry suffer from the classical “expert problem” with the buildup of rules of thumb that do not have empirical validity? More than half a million readers later I am discovering that books are not written for book editors.” Assume that good qualities cause success based on that assumption, even though it seems intuitively correct to think so, the fact that every intelligent, hardworking, persevering person becomes successful does not imply that every successful person is necessarily an intelligent, hardworking, persevering person (it is remarkable how such a primitive logical fallacy- affirming the consequent- can be made by otherwise very intelligent people, a point I discuss in this edition as the “two systems of reasoning” problem). “Notice how our brain sometimes gets the arrow of causality backward.
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